10-Year Treasury Yield
Yield vs. Major Indices Correlation Analysis
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Yield Trend
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Falling yields support equities
Trend Strength
0%
R² Correlation
No clear trend
Period Change
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Lower yields = easier conditions
Market Impact
INVERSE
Overall correlation with equities
10-Year Treasury Yield
10Y Yield vs. Cap-Weighted Market Price
Cap-weighted composite of SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM (amber = 10Y yield, cyan = market price). Divergence signals shifting risk sentiment.
10Y Yield (left) Cap-Weighted Market (right)SPY + QQQ + DIA + IWM
Treasury vs. Major Indices
When Treasury yields rise, it typically puts downward pressure on stock prices as bonds become more attractive. A strong inverse correlation means stocks and yields are moving in opposite directions.
| Index | Price | Change | Correlation | Relationship |
|---|
Yield vs. Indices Overlay
10Y Treasury Yield (left axis) plotted against normalized index performance (right axis). When lines diverge, it signals potential market stress.
10Y Yield S&P 500 NASDAQ DOW Russell
Understanding Treasury Yields & Stocks
Rising Yields
Higher yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks. This increases borrowing costs, reduces corporate earnings forecasts, and typically pressures equity valuations — especially growth stocks (NASDAQ).Falling Yields
Lower yields signal easier financial conditions or economic slowdown fears. Stocks generally benefit as bonds become less competitive and future earnings are discounted at lower rates.Correlation Breakdown
When the usual inverse correlation between yields and stocks breaks down, it often signals unusual market conditions — like stagflation (both falling) or a risk-on rally (both rising).